A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
