Keir Starmer's Allies Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.
Significant Obstacles in the Selection Procedure
A number of figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of sources also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.
