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Increasing worries are present regarding the possibility of armed conflict between Horn of Africa countries, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as hostile language has ratcheted up in the last month.

What Did Ethiopian Officials Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, calls for access to the maritime outlet through Eritrean territory has provoked a intense rhetorical conflict.

Ethiopian Prime Minister previously announced in 2023 that his country's maritime access was an crucial concern, remarks that Eritrean authorities rejected.

Ties between the neighboring nations have frequently been strained. Following a decades-long fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a extensive maritime frontage, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, leaving it landlocked.

Five years later, a territorial conflict erupted in which over a hundred thousand people lost their lives.

Current Comments from Ethiopian Leadership

Abiy and army chief the army commander have directly stated control of Eritrean southern port of the port of Assab – about 60km from the frontier - and hinted at the intention to seize it militarily.

On 1 September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "blunder" of losing access to the sea as a due to Eritrean independence would be "corrected tomorrow".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be returned "by force".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Threats

In the face of continuous threats from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's response has been confined to brief comments on online platforms from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's push for sea access calling it "dangerous" and a "toxic agenda" of "territorial claims" – a strategy of reclaiming former lands.

The information ministry alerted on 16 September that moves to justify "blatant hostility" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Preparations on the Region

There have been no reports of major military movements in the frontier regions between the two countries.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, state television has broadcast training completions of many recruits at different defense facilities.

The head of personnel division of the defense force, General Hachalu, recently said in an interview that the army was in a "strong stance" as "many thousands of recruits" were joining it, which he said was "a message to our opponents".

Past Background of the Tension

For decades from the late 19th century, Eritrea was ruled by Italian colonisers.

Following the end of Italian rule, it was then controlled by the British administration before becoming a associated territory of Ethiopia.

However in 1962 the ruler terminated this agreement and the region became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A extended civil war ensued, concluding with military reversal in the early 1990s. Sovereignty was then endorsed by Eritreans in a plebiscite in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the authorities in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they fell out over the exact location of their shared boundary, leading to war in 1998.

Though this finished in a peace deal in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the two nations continued at loggerheads.

This situation improved in 2018, when Abiy made overtures to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The two agreed to a declaration that the hostilities was over – a move that earned the Prime Minister the international recognition.

The both administrations were then cooperators in Ethiopia's previous internal conflict in the northern region.

However ties have later worsened anew.